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 For asset management companies belonging to a Group (most of the tested sample), inadequate internal supervision of the services (relating to IT, cybersecurity and business continuity) performed by the parent company was identified. But the technical execution of these services by the Group cannot exempt asset management companies from their responsibilities regarding the definition (in priority) of the main risk areas and management of the relevant controls.
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There is also increased focus, including by governmental and non-governmental organizations, investors, customers and consumers on these and other environmental sustainability matters, including deforestation, land use, climate impact and recyclability or recoverability of packaging, including plastic. Our reputation can be damaged if we or others in our industry do not act, or are perceived not to act, responsibly with respect to our impact on the environment.
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8.2.12. As part of its approach to Responsible Investment, the Trustee considers a range of ESG risks, including corporate governance, human rights, bribery and corruption as well as labour and environmental standards. Of the environmental and social issues that we consider, we believe that climate change presents a material financial risk to the assets held in our portfolios. signed the Global Investor Statements to Governments on Climate Change.
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CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD DEBT 25 carried out a benchmark study of the banks’ calculated risk weights for exposures to commercial real estate. The results of the two analyses showed that there is a risk that the capital banks have earmarked for lending to commercial real estate will not sufficiently compensate for the credit losses that could arise following a severe financial stress. It is against this background that FI proposes higher capital requirements for lending to commercial real estate (see “Stability in the banking sector”).
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Business as usual, with very limited regulation beyond that existing in 2018. Severe physical climate change impacts build from 2020. This means that consumption increases until 2025 and then starts a gradual but significant decline as systems collapse, supply routes are disrupted and health and safety issues take precedence over discretionary items.
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The Group faces many other risks which, although important and subject to regular review, have been assessed as less significant and are not listed here. These include, for example, natural catastrophe and business interruption risks and certain financial risks. A summary of financial risks and their management is provided on page 25.
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Megatrend As the world’s population becomes increasingly urbanized, infrastructure development and renewal will be unable to keep up, and major social issues such as housing shortages, traffic paralysis, and air pollution will only worsen. In newly emerging nations, environmental awareness will increase as the economy grows, and investments into environmental measures will proceed at the national and the global levels.
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Now, these older coal and gas plants are being shuttered in the UK and being replaced by intermittent renewable energy sources, principally wind. This reduces carbon emissions but makes the provision of these system support services more challenging. Wind, by its nature, is intermittent and, for the most part, unable to provide system support services.
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Banks’ financing choices have a major role to play in promoting carbon reduction. Bank lending and investments make up a significant source of external capital for carbon intensive industries. Every rand invested by South African banks in fossil fuel-related assets increases climate risk, renders it harder to achieve a just transition to a low-carbon economy, and exposes those banks to financial, reputational and litigation risks.
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Thabametsi and Khanyisa. In its 2017 Environmental and social risk report, the Company said that it was “concerned about climate change and the risks it poses for Africa, clients and their businesses,” but argued that developing nations and financial institutions face a dilemma in terms of balancing climate change against the “need to support economic growth and the energy supply that underpins it”6 FirstRand does not describe how it manages this “dilemma” in its financing decision-making processes.
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CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change presents immediate and long-term risks to Citi and to its clients and customers, with the risks potentially increasing over time. Climate risk can arise from physical risks (risks related to the physical effects of climate change) and transition risks (risks related to regulatory, legal, technological and market changes from a transition to a low- carbon economy).
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Among the important risks identified in STEP 1, we recognize rising raw material prices due to a decline in the harvest of agricultural materials and increased costs owing to the introduction of a carbon tax, which have a particularly high impact on our businesses. We therefore evaluated this business impact as follows.
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Additional climate variables and related environmental stressors are known to affect production but were assessed more broadly due to data and evidence limitations. These parameters include fire, cyclones, sea level rise, pests and diseases. As a result, our modelling of physical climate risk may understate the potential impact of climate change.
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Limitations and uncertainties This analysis is based on best available information. However, it is unable to overcome some important limitations and uncertainties. For example, climate change simulations currently have minimal ability to model extreme weather events. Similarly, agricultural impact models need to be further developed to test the bounds at which statistical relationships change.
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The Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sectors show a general downward trend. The discontinuation of a number of high emissions intensive exposures contributed to this result in FY18. Our exposure to renewables increased 33% to $3.7 billion in FY18. A portion of the exposure included projects under construction which are typically initially more emissions intensive than operational renewable electricity assets.
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Scope 3 Data Centres Scope 3 Data Centres Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Australia operations) relate to the electricity and diesel Greenhouse Gas Emissions consumption in our Australian data centres not under our operational control as defined under NGER. CBA has (Australia operations) not had operational control of any data centres since FY18. Source of emissions factors: NGA (2018).
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Importance Global warming is causing major changes to our environment. Climate change looks to be increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones, damaging critical infrastructure and interrupting the provision of basic services such as food, water, sanitation, education, energy and transport.
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Physical damage may arise with more frequency due to extreme weather events. This includes damage to equipment such as turbine blades and transmission infrastructure, as well as access roads, which impact operational performance. Risks also include long-term changes to weather patterns causing material change to an asset’s energy yield from that expected at the time of investment.
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High physical risk scenario (typically associated with a greater temperature increase) This is a climate change scenario that results in temperature change of greater than 4°C, resulting in extreme weather events which could threaten the successful operation of assets within the portfolio. We assume that under this scenario, renewables buildout lags expectations and energy is not decarbonised to an extent consistent with a lower impact from climate change and that insurance for damages may become unavailable or more expensive.
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Finally, prolonged and multiple periods of heatwaves or other consequences of rising temperatures may result in increased mortality and morbidity, thereby impacting our life and income insurance liabilities. Long-term threats are difficult to predict, but at this time, we expect this to have less impact on our life and income insurance liabilities than other risks, such as changes in demographics or pandemics. It should be noted though that whilst pandemic outbreaks can be attributed to a number of interrelated factors, climate change is likely to increase the risks by spreading of disease vectors into areas that formerly did not experience these.
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For NN’s residential mortgage portfolio, we analysed physical risks. Physical risks for mortgages in the Netherlands are mainly related to damage caused to properties by flooding events (including surface water flooding caused by heavy rainfall, river flooding, and coastal flooding). These events could either lead to a value decrease of collateral and/or impact on the ability of a houseowner to pay their mortgage.
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Since the Industrial Revolution, an increase in energy consumption has heightened the concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere, and global warming is progressing. If warming continues without taking any effective countermeasures, there will be major changes in the earth's climate. This will cause phenomena such as rising sea levels and abnormal weather patterns, and have a great impact on the living environments of people and other organisms. Abnormal weather patterns will also increase the risk of damage to the business activities of the Mitsui Fudosan Group.
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Emission sources not reported This section of the report details the emission sources that we have not reported on and provides the reasons behind our decisions. Only some of the offices we operate directly make use of gas and we have included this in our emissions from combustion of fuel. We do not have distinct data on heat/steam for our other offices as this is most likely embedded in the office service charges that we pay. As a result, we have not currently reported on purchased heat or steam. In future we will devise a methodology to estimate the emissions associated with heating requirements that we are responsible for.
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F rom an investor’s perspective, climate change entails both physical and transition risks, which have an impact on the value of investments. Physical risks are divided into acute and chronic risks, which refer to the challenges that climate change poses to companies and society, such as unexpected damage caused by extreme weather events or the depletion of natural resources in the longer term. Transition risks refer to changes, for example, in regulation, technology and consumer behaviour that the transition to a lower-carbon economy entails.
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While we support well-designed carbon pricing, we’re prepared to oppose poorly designed proposals. For example, we opposed the ballot initiative to introduce a carbon fee in Washington State, US in November 2018. We believed that the policy was badly designed and would have harmed Washington’s economy without significantly reducing carbon emissions. The ballot was not passed.
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Laws, regulations, policies, obligations, social attitudes and customer preferences relating to climate change and the transition to a lower carbon economy could have an adverse impact on our business (including increased costs from compliance, litigation, and regulatory or litigation outcomes), and could lead to constraints on production and supply and access to new reserves and a decline in demand for certain products.
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Furthermore, similar to upstream PP&E assets discussed above, E&A assets are also potentially exposed to climate change and the global energy transition. A greater number of projects may be expected not to proceed as a consequence of lower forecast future demand, lower appetite by management and the board to allocate capital to certain projects, or increased objections from stakeholders to the development of certain projects. In response, management has updated its internal controls over its IFRS 6 assessment to reflect the potential impact that climate change and the energy transition may have on E&A assets.
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Reputational risk In 2019 and in recent years, there has continued to be a range of material risk events such as service outages and data compromises in the market. These impact the reputation of the financial services industry as a whole and potentially threaten consumer confidence in both the reliability of services and the safety of their data and savings.
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During 2018/19 we were informed of plans to carry out a wholesale review of the permitting for biowaste, which is a future challenge for the business. We also face areas of uncertainty about the storage of biosolids and the potential impacts of the Industrial Emissions Directive. These have the potential to impact us significantly.
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Physical risks from climate change arise from a number of factors and relate to specific weather events and longer-term shifts in the climate. The nature and timing of extreme weather events are uncertain but they are increasing in frequency and their impact on the economy is predicted to be more acute in the future. The potential impact on the economy includes, but is not limited to, lower GDP growth, higher unemployment and significant changes in asset prices and profitability of industries. Damage to the properties and operations of borrowers could impair asset values and the creditworthiness of customers leading to increased default rates, delinquencies, write-offs and impairment charges in the Barclays Bank Group’s portfolios. In addition, the Barclays Bank Group’s premises and resilience may also suffer physical damage due to weather events leading to increased costs for the Barclays Bank Group.
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In addition, the impacts of physical and transition climate risks can lead to second order connected risks, which have the potential to affect the Barclays Bank Group’s retail and wholesale portfolios. The impacts of climate change may increase losses for those sectors sensitive to the effects of physical and transition risks. Any subsequent increase in defaults and rising unemployment could create recessionary pressures, which may lead to wider deterioration in the creditworthiness of the Barclays Bank Group’s clients, higher ECLs, and increased charge-offs and defaults among retail customers.
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If the Barclays Bank Group does not adequately embed risks associated with climate change into its risk framework to appropriately measure, manage and disclose the various financial and operational risks it faces as a result of climate change, or fails to adapt its strategy and business model to the changing regulatory requirements and market expectations on a timely basis, it may have a material and adverse impact on the Barclays Bank Group’s level of business growth, competitiveness, profitability, capital requirements, cost of funding, and financial condition.
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Operational risks are inherent in the Barclays Bank Group’s business activities and it is not cost effective or possible to attempt to eliminate all operational risks. The Operational Risk Framework is therefore focused on identifying operational risks, assessing them and managing them within the Barclays Bank Group’s approved risk appetite.
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We have devoted significant resources to develop our risk management capabilities and expect to continue to do so in the future. Nonetheless, our risk management strategies, models and processes, including our use of various risk models for assessing market exposures and hedging strategies, stress testing and other analysis, may not be fully effective in mitigating our risk exposure in all market environments or against all types of risk, including risks that are unidentified or unanticipated.
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Scope 1 emissions come mostly from refrigerant leaks and to a lesser extent from stationary combustion in furnaces. Our Scope 3 emissions result primarily from the production of goods for sale, transportation of products, and waste generated in our operations. We use the GHG Protocol’s Corporate Value Chain methodology (Scope 3) to determine our reporting category.
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Disappointingly, the vast majority of companies only make generic references to emerging risks when describing their risk management processes. They provide little insight into whether existing risk management processes were sufficient to identify emerging risks or whether they had to flex or amend these processes to do so. They give little information about how emerging risks, once identified, are treated and monitored.
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Investors are seeking a better understanding of how climate change may impact the company’s business over the short, medium and long term. They also want to know about the company’s planned response, including how it may need to change its strategy. However, according to EY’s July 2020 report ‘How will ESG performance shape your future?’, based on a global institutional investor survey, companies are failing to meet investors’ expectations on environmental, social and governance factors when compared with 2018.
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Growing concerns over air quality, road safety, sustainability and urban congestion, among consumers and society at large, are driving the regulations and policies for motor vehicles and urban development. These will impact choice of fuel, ownership patterns and will have a signicant impact on the future of the automotive industry.
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Unfortunately, this progress has come at a cost. Carbon emissions have tripled since 1960. We are now consuming about 1.75 times as many natural resources in a year as the planet can possibly regenerate – which is driving land and biodiversity loss, resource shortages and climate change. This is not sustainable, especially with the global population forecast to increase by a further 50% this century. And although people are living longer, they’re not always healthier or happier: there’s been an increase in chronic disease, while mental health issues are also on the rise.
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Physical risk Physical risks can be acute or chronic. Acute physical risk is caused by extreme weather events such as cyclones and wildfires. Chronic physical risk arises from longer-term shifts in climate patterns such as rising sea levels with time horizon typically spanning decades. Physical risk can result in financial losses due to direct damage to assets and indirect impact from supply chain disruption.
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Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions Indirect emissions resulting from the generation of grid electricity, heat or steam by an outside organisation, such as an electricity provider, but which is utilised by the reporting organisation. Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions All other indirect emissions which occur at sources the organisation neither owns nor controls. Scope 3 emissions can result from business travel in non-company vehicles, especially commercial planes; employees commuting in non-company vehicles, as well as the activities of suppliers, customers and contractors.
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The risk of credit loss or non-financial risks, such as reputational damage, arising from environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, including climate change. While a key component of ESG risk arises indirectly from the financial services we provide to our customers, it can also result directly from our own operations.
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Initial insights The majority of the residential properties in our portfolio have a very low probability of experiencing damage from flooding or drought in the next 30 years. A relatively small number of properties, however, have a high probability of experiencing damage from flooding or drought in that period. Therefore, the impact on an individual household may be significant, even more so if the quality of the property is already low or the household’s response capacity is low (e.g. insufficient wealth or mortgage headroom). Nevertheless this initial analysis does not suggest a significant impact at either a portfolio or bank level.
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In July 2019, NGO Friends of the Earth Netherlands and its Indonesia and Liberia affiliates notified the Dutch NCP that ING may be in breach of the OECD Guidelines by financing palm oil-related activities. In its initial assessment published January 2020, the NCP did not express an opinion on either the accuracy of the allegations made by the NGOs or the response provided by ING.
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Compliance Risk Management Compliance risk (a type of operational risk) is the risk resulting from the failure to comply with laws (legislation, regulations and rules) and regulatory guidance, and the failure to appropriately address associated impacts, including to customers. Compliance risk encompasses violations of applicable internal policies, program requirements, procedures, and standards related to ethical principles applicable to the banking industry.
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In addition, many of the project’s end-customers are large entities with wide ranging activities. A climate related event in a non-related part of the business could have a material adverse impact on the financial strength of such end-customer and their ability to honor their contractual obligations which could negatively impact on revenue and the cash flow of the project and our business.
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However, the implementation of a carbon tax may also have a negative impact on the financial health of utilities and corporate entities who also happen to purchase power from renewable energy projects in which we have invested. The credit ratings of these entities may be downgraded due to additional operating expenses resulting from a carbon tax. A credit rating downgrade may reduce the amount of financial leverage we are able to utilize. If this were to occur, our overall profitability could decline.
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In anticipation of climate change related physical risks, projects related to our investments in particularly vulnerable regions, such as low-lying coastal areas, may face increases in insurance costs. An increase in insurance costs may reduce the cash flows and financial returns from these investments and may cause us to reduce the amount of financial leverage we utilize and cause a decline in our overall profitability.
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A reduction in GHG emissions relies on the commercial viability and scalability of emission reduction strategies and related technology and products. In the event that we are unable to implement these strategies and technologies as planned without negatively impacting our expected operations or cost structure, or such strategies or technologies do not perform as expected, we may be unable to meet our GHG 2030 targets or 2050 ambition on the current timelines, or at all.
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Low Carbon Fuel Standards Existing and proposed environmental legislation and regulation developed by certain U.S. states, Canadian provinces, the Canadian federal government and members of the European Union, regulating carbon fuel standards could result in increased costs and reduced revenue. The potential regulation may negatively affect the marketing of Cenovus’s bitumen, crude oil or refined products, and may require us to purchase emissions credits in order to affect sales in such jurisdictions. As an oil sands producer, we are not directly regulated and are not expected to have a compliance obligation for carbon intensity reduction requirements for liquid fuels. Refiners, importers, and fuel distributors in these jurisdictions are required to comply with the legislation.
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DEFINITIONS Scope 1 emissions are direct emissions from owned or operated facilities. Cenovus accounts for emissions on a gross operatorship basis. This includes fuel combustion, venting, flaring and fugitive emissions. It does not include emissions from the 50% non-operated ownership in the company’s refineries or emissions from non-operated Deep Basin assets.
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Failure to comply and adapt to climate related matters is also a significant reputation risk which could result in e.g. lack of tenant interest, higher cost of capital in the financial market, and lack of ability to attract or retain talent. Also, not handling the company’s corporate social responsibilities in an informed and good matter is a reputation risk, whereas the opposite is an opportunity.
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Climate change means climate risk, not only physical risk but also transition risk – the risk associated with economic impacts of the transition to a low carbon economy. Future social developments, climate policy developments and technology developments are subject to high uncertainty, and these factors have a major impact on greenhouse gas emissions. There is also significant uncertainty with regard to how sensitive the climate system is to changes in greenhouse gas emissions, and uncertainty with regard to the effects of a given level of warming.
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The analysis of economic implications of climate change is fraught with difficulty, and it is impossible to survey all potential impacts of climate change as no existing scenario or model can fully describe the workings of the entire physical world and how all physical, chemical, geological and biological processes influence each other. Impacts of climate changes will thus depend on how rapidly they occur, how large the changes are, as well as the adaptability of societies and ecosystems. As such, many analyses are based on factors that lend themselves to some degree of quantification, but climate change will also have effects which are difficult to quantify, or which cannot meaning- fully be quantified.
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– Commonly used benchmarks are the current climate or the pre-industrial climate situation. Norway will probably experience increased precipitation, more flooding, more frequent landslips and rising sea level, and these physical changes and the uncertainty associated therewith constitute risk factors. Many of the physical processes happen very slowly, from a human perspective. Even if net global emissions were to be reduced to zero within a short space of time, it may therefore take a very long time for the climate system to arrive at a new equilibrium.
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The two biggest emissions categories are car use and air travel. Compared to 2016, there was a decrease in the category ‘car’ as a result of the switch to electric lease cars. There were more kilometres of air travel in 2019, which resulted in higher CO 2 emissions in this area.
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■ While our facilities and operations are distributed across the globe, we can experience extreme weather, natural disasters, civil unrest, human-made disasters, power outages, pandemic, and other events which can prevent access to, and operations within, the facilities for our employees, partners, and other parties that support our business operations.
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Creating value Measuring our reputation KPI FY19 FY18 FY17 FY16 FY15 AGL‘s Reptrak score declined since FY18. The drop in AGL‘s reputation over the past year has been driven by declining scores on three important dimensions of reputation – leadership, workplace and citizenship. This decline in reputation was consistent with scores across the energy industry as a whole.
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Financial losses stemming from climate-related factors adversely impacting the capital value of securities held within the Investment Vehicle portfolio and/or the ability of those companies whose securities are held to meet their financial obligations thereunder. Reputational damage stemming from the Company’s association with companies whose securities are held within the Investment Vehicle portfolio and whose ESG policies, activities or disclosures fail to meet the standards expected by stakeholders.
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Risk Impact Assessment of change in risk year-on-year Mitigation of risk absorber tubes, blades, PV panels or transformers are susceptible to being damaged by severe weather, including for example hail. In addition, replacement and spare parts for key components may be difficult or costly to acquire or may be unavailable
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In addition, to the physical risks mentioned previously, rising temperatures could cause an increase in our operation and maintenance costs. Rising temperatures are associated to the reduction of the cycle efficiency of our turbines, a reduction of efficiency in solar photovoltaic modules, lower efficiency in wind facilities and higher consumption of chemicals used for operational purposes in our desalination plants, among others.
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Climate-related physical risks are those risks resulting from climate change, which involve event-driven (acute) or longer-term (chronic) shifts in climate patterns. Acute physical risks refer to those that are event-driven, including increased severity of extreme weather events such as cyclones, hurricanes or floods. Chronic physical risks refer to longer-term shifts in climate patterns (e.g., sustained higher temperatures) that may cause sea level rise or chronic heat waves.
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Given the significant impact of this period of uncertainty on both Canadian businesses and companies and governments around the world, and the resulting volatility in financial markets, we expect to see significant effects on several of our financial statement line items and on our financial results in 2020. The timing and size of those impacts is not possible to forecast at this time.
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Climate change is one of the greatest challenges we face today, with the potential to significantly impact our business, as well as our planet, in a number of ways. Construction delays, loss in productivity, rising material, water and energy costs and damage to property are just some of the climate-related risks we face as weather events caused by higher temperatures continue to become more extreme.
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The quantitative investment strategies focus mainly on stock picking based on quality and valuation. It is precisely these strategies, which yield long-term value and are suitable for large portfolios, that tend to perform poorly in a context of highly accommodative central bank monetary policies. In 2019, all major quantitative investment styles performed poorly; stock picking based on valuation and quality and stock picking based on recent price trends both yielded negative returns. This combination is seldom seen.
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42_ Scope 1 concerns direct emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, such as gas, oil, coal, etc. Scope 2 covers indirect emissions related to the consumption of electricity, heat or steam required to manufacture a product. Scope 3 concerns other indirect emissions, such as the extraction of materials purchased by the company to manufacture a product or the transport-related emissions of employees and of customers who buy the product. This is the largest share of a company’s emissions.
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The impact of climate change presents a significant risk. Damage to assets caused by extreme weather events linked to climate change is becoming more evident, highlighting the fragility of global infrastructure. We also anticipate the potential effects of climate change will increasingly impact our own operations and those of client properties we manage, especially when they are in coastal cities.
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Emerging risks are monitored proactively, their potential long-term impact on the Company is evaluated, and Senior Management and Risk Management Committee are informed on the subject. In this context, climate change risks stand out in terms of both impact and probability. Moreover, loss of reputation/brand damage, business interruption, failure to innovate, cyber attack and information security risks stand out as globally emerging risks.
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Changes in the portfolio’s carbon footprint may occur for two reasons: a change in portfolio composition or a change in the emissions of investee companies. Not until companies reduce their real emissions will we see a reduction of atmospheric carbon and an improvement in the climate. In the past, it was not possible to show the reasons for changes in portfolio carbon footprint. However, the AP funds in 2019 were for the first time able to quantify changes over time in total carbon emissions and portfolio-weighted carbon intensity. Nevertheless, the metrics have limitations that restrict their applicability for measuring total portfolio climate risk and impact. This is because the figures do not, for example, include carbon emissions caused indirectly by investee business activities.
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LafargeHolcim is exposed to a variety of regulatory frameworks to reduce emissions. In addition, a perception of the sector as a high emitter could impact our reputation, thus reducing our attractiveness to investors, employees and potential employees. Based on TCFD framework and risk categorization, LafargeHolcim assesses all climate-related risks. See page 67 the most relevant risks associated with our business.
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The cement industry is associated with high CO2 intensity and LafargeHolcim is exposed to a variety of regulatory frameworks to reduce emissions, some of which may be under revision. These frameworks can affect the business activities of LafargeHolcim. In addition, a perception of the sector as a high emitter could impact our reputation, thus reducing our attractiveness to investors, employees and potential employees.
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MARKE T: As the carbon debate intensifies, cement and concrete could be challenged by our customers as the building material of first choice because of perceived high embodied CO2. In the long term, should regulatory frameworks fail to incentivize consumption of low-carbon products, customers may be unwilling to pay for additional costs and the cement sector’s low-carbon roadmap might be compromised.
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Net CO2 emissions (kg per ton of cementitious material) Net CO2 emissions are CO2 emissions from the calcination process of the raw materials and the combustion of traditional kiln and non-kiln fuels. Cementitious materials refer to clinker production volumes, mineral components consumed in cement production and mineral components processed and sold externally.
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Disengaging and divesting from thermal coal, oil sands and oil shale Fossil fuels emit carbon dioxide (CO2) when burned and extracting them can harm the environment. We are working with customers and companies in which we invest that have more than 30 percent exposure to thermal coal, oil sands and oil shales to help them to reduce their use and exposure to these fuels. Zurich will also generally no longer underwrite or invest in companies generating more than 30 percent of their revenue from mining or more than 30 percent of their electricity from thermal coal.
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Risks to the Group’s reputation Risks include acts or omissions by the Group or any of its employees that could damage the Group’s reputation or lead to a loss of trust among its stakeholders. Every risk type has potential consequences for Zurich’s reputation. Effectively managing each risk type supports preventing adverse reputation outcomes.
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Climate-related physical risks Changes are expected in the frequency, severity and geographical distribution of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall and associated flooding or heat waves in the event that society fails to limit climate change to well below an increase of two degrees Celsius. Scientific consensus suggests society is likely to experience devastating impacts as a result of these changes. Current climate models, such as the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model upon which Zurich bases its internal climate scenarios, indicate that physical climate-change risk will begin to rise more materially after the next two decades if left unmitigated.
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Zurich could be exposed to transition risks if it fails to manage changing market conditions and customer needs as part of the transition to a low-carbon economy, resulting in asset impairment, opportunity cost and lost market share. In a transition scenario, industries unable to de-carbonize could experience declining profitability and lack of re-financing, which could lead to a lack of maintenance with increasing rates of outages and equipment break-downs that translate into higher insurance losses. Failure to manage transition risk could also lead to reputational impacts, both internal and external, resulting from a failure to deliver on publicly stated commitments. Although not considered material in the near-term, the increasing frequency of climate-related legal action suggests climate-related litigation could represent a significant potential risk in the long term.
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Climate change can pose material risks to sovereign debt due to its impact on national expenditures associated with disaster recovery from extreme weather events or preparedness through climate change mitigation and adaptation projects. Emerging market countries are particularly vulnerable since they often lack capital or have higher funding costs, which exacerbates the myriad risks that they already face. For example, many of these countries are vulnerable to food insecurity from both the impact of climate change on their own agricultural production and higher prices for imports. Our investment team members are increasingly focused on deepening their understanding of environmental risk in sovereigns and its complex links to fiscal and monetary conditions, which in turn affect bond yields and credit ratings.
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We may be subject to unionization, work stoppages, slowdowns or increased labor costs and the unionization of the Company’s pilots and inflight crewmembers could result in increased labor costs. Our business is labor intensive and the unionization of any of our crewmembers could result in demands that may increase our operating expenses and adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. Any of the different crafts or classes of our crewmembers could unionize at any time, which would require us to negotiate in good faith with the crewmember group’s certified representative concerning a collective bargaining agreement. In addition, we may be subject to disruptions by unions protesting the non-union status of our other crewmembers. Any of these events would be disruptive to our operations and could harm our business.
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If we are unable to attract and retain qualified personnel or fail to maintain our company culture, our business could be harmed. We compete against other major U.S. airlines for pilots, mechanics, and other skilled labor; some of them offer wage and benefit packages exceeding ours. As more pilots in the industry approach mandatory retirement age, the U.S. airline industry may be affected by a pilot shortage. We may be required to increase wages and/or benefits in order to attract and retain qualified personnel or risk considerable crewmember turnover. If we are unable to hire, train, and retain qualified crewmembers, our business could be harmed and we may be unable to implement our growth plans.
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Operational risks Operational risks relate to the losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or due to external events. These risks normally fall within our low-risk appetite level as there is no strategic benefit from accepting the risk and accepting that it is not in line with our vision and values.
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Scope 3 greenhouse gas emissions Scope 3 emissions are indirect greenhouse gas emissions as a consequence of the operations of the Company, but are not owned or controlled by the Company, such as emissions from third-party logistics providers, waste management suppliers, travel suppliers, employee commuting, and combustion of sold gas by customers.
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Reputation: In managing our reputation we seek to avoid the loss of credibility due to internal or external factors. Many types of risk have the potential to negatively impact our corporate reputation. Internal business practices, or those of our business partners or the companies in which we invest, may generate reputation harm. Consequences include diminished brand efficacy in commercial markets, impeding our ability to execute our strategy and our status as investor, partner and employer of choice.
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The impact of climate change may over time affect the operations of the Group and the markets in which the Group operates. This could include physical risks such as acute and chronic changes in weather and/or transitional risks such as technological development, policy and regulatory change, and market and economic responses. Efforts to address climate change through laws and regulations, for example by requiring reductions in emissions of GHGs such as CO2, can create economic risks and uncertainties for the Group’s businesses. Such risks could include the cost of purchasing allowances or credits to meet GHG emissions caps, the cost of installing equipment to reduce emissions to comply with GHG limits or required technological standards, decreased profits or losses arising from decreased demand for the Group’s goods and higher production costs resulting directly or indirectly from the imposition of legislative or regulatory controls. Manifestation of these increased costs may increase the underlying cost of production of the Group’s products which may adversely impact the financial performance of the Group.
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It includes the risk that the Group fails to develop or to execute successful strategies to deliver acceptable returns in the context of the economic, competitive, regulatory / legal and interest rate environments that arise. It also includes non-financial risks such as people risks and risks relating to climate change.
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In addition, our businesses and the markets in which we operate are continuously evolving. We may fail to fully understand the implications of changes in our businesses or the financial markets or fail to adequately or timely enhance our risk framework to address those changes. If our risk framework is ineffective because it fails to keep pace with changes in the financial markets, regulatory requirements, our businesses, our counterparties, clients or service providers or for other reasons, we could incur losses, suffer reputational damage or find ourselves out of compliance with applicable regulatory or contractual mandates or expectations.
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Although we have devoted significant resources to develop our risk management policies, procedures and methods, including with respect to market, credit, liquidity, operational as well as reputational and model risk, they may not be fully effective in mitigating our risk exposures in all economic market environments or against all types of risk, including risks that we fail to identify or anticipate.
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We have imposed restrictions on providing loans, advice and insurance to controversial and socially sensitive sectors and activities such as: the energy sector, project finance, arms-related activities, narcotic crops, gambling, fur, palm oil production, mining, deforestation, land acquisition and involuntary resettlement of indigenous populations, tobacco, mining, animal welfare and prostitution.
3risk
Business risk is the risk arising from changes in external factors (the macroeconomic environment, regulations, client behaviour, competitive landscape, socio-demographic environment, climate, etc.) that impact the demand for and/or profitability of our products and services. Strategic risk is the risk caused by not taking a strategic decision, by taking a strategic decision that does not have the intended effect or by not adequately implementing strategic decisions. quantified under different stress test scenarios and long-term earnings assessments.
2strategy
The enterprise risks were categorized as an external, operational or strategic risk. External risks emerge from outside the organization, operational risks arise from within the organization, and strategic risks are associated with our strategic initiatives. The identified risks can significantly affect the Association’s finance, relevancy and reputation if mitigations are not in place.
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The physical risks identified were all expected to only manifest in the longer term. Physical risks include: reduced ability to complete construction on time in the case of extreme weather events; construction times may similarly be marginally prolonged from chronic changes in weather patterns, such as heavier rainfall and increased humidity; and rising sea levels and heightened risk of flooding may impact the availability of development plots.
2strategy
Human rights are being severely affected by climate change. Human rights outcomes related to climate impacts include the loss of land, forced migration, and loss of life and resources due to conflict. People also have their rights to livelihood and work affected. Consequently, human rights impacts are of primary concern in a just transition.
2strategy
The downsides of disruptive technology have been apparent in other engagements. The Forum’s discussions with Tesla, a company that potentially will play a central role in decarbonising the car industry, have focused on health and safety concerns about their Freemont car plant. Despite introducing new technologies on the production line, reports have suggested that incident rates are higher than their competitors. There have been similar concerns that employment standards and health and safety records have been worse in new industries, including in the renewable energy sector.
2strategy
Climate change exposes us to physical risks which may challenge our ability to effectively underwrite, model and price catastrophe risk particularly if the frequency and severity of catastrophic events such as pandemics, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, wildfires and windstorms and other natural disasters continue to increase. For example, losses resulting from actual policy experience may be adverse as compared to the assumptions made in product pricing and our ability to mitigate our exposure may be reduced.
2strategy
Climate change-related risks may also adversely impact the value of the securities that we hold or lead to increased credit risk of other counterparties we transact business with, including reinsurers. In addition, our reputation or corporate brand could be negatively impacted as a result of changing customer or societal perceptions of organizations that we either insure or invest in due to their actions (or lack thereof) with respect to climate change. We cannot predict the long-term impacts of climate change on our business and results of operations.
2strategy
Other regulatory risks entail litigation risk and potential direct regulations in line with increasing carbon neutrality ambitions in various jurisdictions, such as the EU’s European Green Deal. Climate-related policy changes may also reduce access to prospective geographical areas for future exploration and production. Disruptive developments may not be ruled out, possibly triggered by severe weather events affecting public perception and policy making.
2strategy
Reputational and financial impact: Increased concern over climate change could lead to increased expectations to fossil fuel producers, as well as a more negative perception of the oil and gas industry. This could lead to litigation and divestment risk and could also have an impact on talent attraction and retention and on our licenses to operate in certain jurisdictions.
2strategy
Examples of parameters that could impact Equinor’s operations include increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events, rising sea level, changes in sea currents and restrained water availability. There is also uncertainty regarding the magnitude and time horizon for the occurrence of physical impacts of climate change, which increases uncertainty regarding their potential impact on Equinor.
2strategy
Given how essential bonds are to the global economy — as a source of risk management and returns for investors, as a source of capital for companies and governments — the lack of structural innovations to the bond market for many years was surprising. For decades, bond markets largely stayed the same. And in fact, investing in bonds became more difficult following the global financial crisis, as greater regulatory oversight and capital restrictions significantly reduced banks’ balance sheets and as a result, bond inventories.
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IAG is exposed to multiple risks relating to its general insurance business. The risks noted below are not meant to represent an exhaustive list, but outline the material risks faced by the Group as identified in the RMS:  strategic risk – the risk that internal or external factors compromise our ability to execute our strategic objectives or our strategy;
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