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Mar 14

Verbalized Machine Learning: Revisiting Machine Learning with Language Models

Motivated by the large progress made by large language models (LLMs), we introduce the framework of verbalized machine learning (VML). In contrast to conventional machine learning models that are typically optimized over a continuous parameter space, VML constrains the parameter space to be human-interpretable natural language. Such a constraint leads to a new perspective of function approximation, where an LLM with a text prompt can be viewed as a function parameterized by the text prompt. Guided by this perspective, we revisit classical machine learning problems, such as regression and classification, and find that these problems can be solved by an LLM-parameterized learner and optimizer. The major advantages of VML include (1) easy encoding of inductive bias: prior knowledge about the problem and hypothesis class can be encoded in natural language and fed into the LLM-parameterized learner; (2) automatic model class selection: the optimizer can automatically select a concrete model class based on data and verbalized prior knowledge, and it can update the model class during training; and (3) interpretable learner updates: the LLM-parameterized optimizer can provide explanations for why each learner update is performed. We conduct several studies to empirically evaluate the effectiveness of VML, and hope that VML can serve as a stepping stone to stronger interpretability and trustworthiness in ML.

Deep Learning Scaling is Predictable, Empirically

Deep learning (DL) creates impactful advances following a virtuous recipe: model architecture search, creating large training data sets, and scaling computation. It is widely believed that growing training sets and models should improve accuracy and result in better products. As DL application domains grow, we would like a deeper understanding of the relationships between training set size, computational scale, and model accuracy improvements to advance the state-of-the-art. This paper presents a large scale empirical characterization of generalization error and model size growth as training sets grow. We introduce a methodology for this measurement and test four machine learning domains: machine translation, language modeling, image processing, and speech recognition. Our empirical results show power-law generalization error scaling across a breadth of factors, resulting in power-law exponents---the "steepness" of the learning curve---yet to be explained by theoretical work. Further, model improvements only shift the error but do not appear to affect the power-law exponent. We also show that model size scales sublinearly with data size. These scaling relationships have significant implications on deep learning research, practice, and systems. They can assist model debugging, setting accuracy targets, and decisions about data set growth. They can also guide computing system design and underscore the importance of continued computational scaling.

Corrective Machine Unlearning

Machine Learning models increasingly face data integrity challenges due to the use of large-scale training datasets drawn from the Internet. We study what model developers can do if they detect that some data was manipulated or incorrect. Such manipulated data can cause adverse effects including vulnerability to backdoored samples, systemic biases, and reduced accuracy on certain input domains. Realistically, all manipulated training samples cannot be identified, and only a small, representative subset of the affected data can be flagged. We formalize Corrective Machine Unlearning as the problem of mitigating the impact of data affected by unknown manipulations on a trained model, only having identified a subset of the corrupted data. We demonstrate that the problem of corrective unlearning has significantly different requirements from traditional privacy-oriented unlearning. We find most existing unlearning methods, including retraining-from-scratch without the deletion set, require most of the manipulated data to be identified for effective corrective unlearning. However, one approach, Selective Synaptic Dampening, achieves limited success, unlearning adverse effects with just a small portion of the manipulated samples in our setting, which shows encouraging signs for future progress. We hope our work spurs research towards developing better methods for corrective unlearning and offers practitioners a new strategy to handle data integrity challenges arising from web-scale training. Code is available at https://github.com/drimpossible/corrective-unlearning-bench.

Machine Translation Meta Evaluation through Translation Accuracy Challenge Sets

Recent machine translation (MT) metrics calibrate their effectiveness by correlating with human judgement but without any insights about their behaviour across different error types. Challenge sets are used to probe specific dimensions of metric behaviour but there are very few such datasets and they either focus on a limited number of phenomena or a limited number of language pairs. We introduce ACES, a contrastive challenge set spanning 146 language pairs, aimed at discovering whether metrics can identify 68 translation accuracy errors. These phenomena range from simple alterations at the word/character level to more complex errors based on discourse and real-world knowledge. We conduct a large-scale study by benchmarking ACES on 50 metrics submitted to the WMT 2022 and 2023 metrics shared tasks. We benchmark metric performance, assess their incremental performance over successive campaigns, and measure their sensitivity to a range of linguistic phenomena. We also investigate claims that Large Language Models (LLMs) are effective as MT evaluators by evaluating on ACES. Our results demonstrate that different metric families struggle with different phenomena and that LLM-based methods fail to demonstrate reliable performance. Our analyses indicate that most metrics ignore the source sentence, tend to prefer surface-level overlap and end up incorporating properties of base models which are not always beneficial. We expand ACES to include error span annotations, denoted as SPAN-ACES and we use this dataset to evaluate span-based error metrics showing these metrics also need considerable improvement. Finally, we provide a set of recommendations for building better MT metrics, including focusing on error labels instead of scores, ensembling, designing strategies to explicitly focus on the source sentence, focusing on semantic content and choosing the right base model for representations.

Adaptive Machine Translation with Large Language Models

Consistency is a key requirement of high-quality translation. It is especially important to adhere to pre-approved terminology and adapt to corrected translations in domain-specific projects. Machine translation (MT) has achieved significant progress in the area of domain adaptation. However, real-time adaptation remains challenging. Large-scale language models (LLMs) have recently shown interesting capabilities of in-context learning, where they learn to replicate certain input-output text generation patterns, without further fine-tuning. By feeding an LLM at inference time with a prompt that consists of a list of translation pairs, it can then simulate the domain and style characteristics. This work aims to investigate how we can utilize in-context learning to improve real-time adaptive MT. Our extensive experiments show promising results at translation time. For example, LLMs can adapt to a set of in-domain sentence pairs and/or terminology while translating a new sentence. We observe that the translation quality with few-shot in-context learning can surpass that of strong encoder-decoder MT systems, especially for high-resource languages. Moreover, we investigate whether we can combine MT from strong encoder-decoder models with fuzzy matches, which can further improve translation quality, especially for less supported languages. We conduct our experiments across five diverse language pairs, namely English-to-Arabic (EN-AR), English-to-Chinese (EN-ZH), English-to-French (EN-FR), English-to-Kinyarwanda (EN-RW), and English-to-Spanish (EN-ES).

ToxiGen: A Large-Scale Machine-Generated Dataset for Adversarial and Implicit Hate Speech Detection

Toxic language detection systems often falsely flag text that contains minority group mentions as toxic, as those groups are often the targets of online hate. Such over-reliance on spurious correlations also causes systems to struggle with detecting implicitly toxic language. To help mitigate these issues, we create ToxiGen, a new large-scale and machine-generated dataset of 274k toxic and benign statements about 13 minority groups. We develop a demonstration-based prompting framework and an adversarial classifier-in-the-loop decoding method to generate subtly toxic and benign text with a massive pretrained language model. Controlling machine generation in this way allows ToxiGen to cover implicitly toxic text at a larger scale, and about more demographic groups, than previous resources of human-written text. We conduct a human evaluation on a challenging subset of ToxiGen and find that annotators struggle to distinguish machine-generated text from human-written language. We also find that 94.5% of toxic examples are labeled as hate speech by human annotators. Using three publicly-available datasets, we show that finetuning a toxicity classifier on our data improves its performance on human-written data substantially. We also demonstrate that ToxiGen can be used to fight machine-generated toxicity as finetuning improves the classifier significantly on our evaluation subset. Our code and data can be found at https://github.com/microsoft/ToxiGen.

Towards Scalable Exact Machine Unlearning Using Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning

Machine unlearning is the process of efficiently removing the influence of a training data instance from a trained machine learning model without retraining it from scratch. A popular subclass of unlearning approaches is exact machine unlearning, which focuses on techniques that explicitly guarantee the removal of the influence of a data instance from a model. Exact unlearning approaches use a machine learning model in which individual components are trained on disjoint subsets of the data. During deletion, exact unlearning approaches only retrain the affected components rather than the entire model. While existing approaches reduce retraining costs, it can still be expensive for an organization to retrain a model component as it requires halting a system in production, which leads to service failure and adversely impacts customers. To address these challenges, we introduce an exact unlearning framework -- Sequence-aware Sharded Sliced Training (S3T), designed to enhance the deletion capabilities of an exact unlearning system while minimizing the impact on model's performance. At the core of S3T, we utilize a lightweight parameter-efficient fine-tuning approach that enables parameter isolation by sequentially training layers with disjoint data slices. This enables efficient unlearning by simply deactivating the layers affected by data deletion. Furthermore, to reduce the retraining cost and improve model performance, we train the model on multiple data sequences, which allows S3T to handle an increased number of deletion requests. Both theoretically and empirically, we demonstrate that S3T attains superior deletion capabilities and enhanced performance compared to baselines across a wide range of settings.

Machine Perceptual Quality: Evaluating the Impact of Severe Lossy Compression on Audio and Image Models

In the field of neural data compression, the prevailing focus has been on optimizing algorithms for either classical distortion metrics, such as PSNR or SSIM, or human perceptual quality. With increasing amounts of data consumed by machines rather than humans, a new paradigm of machine-oriented compressionx2013which prioritizes the retention of features salient for machine perception over traditional human-centric criteriax2013has emerged, creating several new challenges to the development, evaluation, and deployment of systems utilizing lossy compression. In particular, it is unclear how different approaches to lossy compression will affect the performance of downstream machine perception tasks. To address this under-explored area, we evaluate various perception modelsx2013including image classification, image segmentation, speech recognition, and music source separationx2013under severe lossy compression. We utilize several popular codecs spanning conventional, neural, and generative compression architectures. Our results indicate three key findings: (1) using generative compression, it is feasible to leverage highly compressed data while incurring a negligible impact on machine perceptual quality; (2) machine perceptual quality correlates strongly with deep similarity metrics, indicating a crucial role of these metrics in the development of machine-oriented codecs; and (3) using lossy compressed datasets, (e.g. ImageNet) for pre-training can lead to counter-intuitive scenarios where lossy compression increases machine perceptual quality rather than degrading it. To encourage engagement on this growing area of research, our code and experiments are available at: https://github.com/danjacobellis/MPQ.

Forecasting Lithium-Ion Battery Longevity with Limited Data Availability: Benchmarking Different Machine Learning Algorithms

As the use of Lithium-ion batteries continues to grow, it becomes increasingly important to be able to predict their remaining useful life. This work aims to compare the relative performance of different machine learning algorithms, both traditional machine learning and deep learning, in order to determine the best-performing algorithms for battery cycle life prediction based on minimal data. We investigated 14 different machine learning models that were fed handcrafted features based on statistical data and split into 3 feature groups for testing. For deep learning models, we tested a variety of neural network models including different configurations of standard Recurrent Neural Networks, Gated Recurrent Units, and Long Short Term Memory with and without attention mechanism. Deep learning models were fed multivariate time series signals based on the raw data for each battery across the first 100 cycles. Our experiments revealed that the machine learning algorithms on handcrafted features performed particularly well, resulting in 10-20% average mean absolute percentage error. The best-performing algorithm was the Random Forest Regressor, which gave a minimum 9.8% mean absolute percentage error. Traditional machine learning models excelled due to their capability to comprehend general data set trends. In comparison, deep learning models were observed to perform particularly poorly on raw, limited data. Algorithms like GRU and RNNs that focused on capturing medium-range data dependencies were less adept at recognizing the gradual, slow trends critical for this task. Our investigation reveals that implementing machine learning models with hand-crafted features proves to be more effective than advanced deep learning models for predicting the remaining useful Lithium-ion battery life with limited data availability.

Machine Vision Therapy: Multimodal Large Language Models Can Enhance Visual Robustness via Denoising In-Context Learning

Although vision models such as Contrastive Language-Image Pre-Training (CLIP) show impressive generalization performance, their zero-shot robustness is still limited under Out-of-Distribution (OOD) scenarios without fine-tuning. Instead of undesirably providing human supervision as commonly done, it is possible to take advantage of Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) that hold powerful visual understanding abilities. However, MLLMs are shown to struggle with vision problems due to the incompatibility of tasks, thus hindering their utilization. In this paper, we propose to effectively leverage MLLMs to conduct Machine Vision Therapy which aims to rectify the noisy predictions from vision models. By fine-tuning with the denoised labels, the learning model performance can be boosted in an unsupervised manner. To solve the incompatibility issue, we propose a novel Denoising In-Context Learning (DICL) strategy to align vision tasks with MLLMs. Concretely, by estimating a transition matrix that captures the probability of one class being confused with another, an instruction containing a correct exemplar and an erroneous one from the most probable noisy class can be constructed. Such an instruction can help any MLLMs with ICL ability to detect and rectify incorrect predictions of vision models. Through extensive experiments on ImageNet, WILDS, DomainBed, and other OOD datasets, we carefully validate the quantitative and qualitative effectiveness of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/tmllab/Machine_Vision_Therapy.

Applications of machine Learning to improve the efficiency and range of microbial biosynthesis: a review of state-of-art techniques

In the modern world, technology is at its peak. Different avenues in programming and technology have been explored for data analysis, automation, and robotics. Machine learning is key to optimize data analysis, make accurate predictions, and hasten/improve existing functions. Thus, presently, the field of machine learning in artificial intelligence is being developed and its uses in varying fields are being explored. One field in which its uses stand out is that of microbial biosynthesis. In this paper, a comprehensive overview of the differing machine learning programs used in biosynthesis is provided, alongside brief descriptions of the fields of machine learning and microbial biosynthesis separately. This information includes past trends, modern developments, future improvements, explanations of processes, and current problems they face. Thus, this paper's main contribution is to distill developments in, and provide a holistic explanation of, 2 key fields and their applicability to improve industry/research. It also highlights challenges and research directions, acting to instigate more research and development in the growing fields. Finally, the paper aims to act as a reference for academics performing research, industry professionals improving their processes, and students looking to understand the concept of machine learning in biosynthesis.

ArchGym: An Open-Source Gymnasium for Machine Learning Assisted Architecture Design

Machine learning is a prevalent approach to tame the complexity of design space exploration for domain-specific architectures. Using ML for design space exploration poses challenges. First, it's not straightforward to identify the suitable algorithm from an increasing pool of ML methods. Second, assessing the trade-offs between performance and sample efficiency across these methods is inconclusive. Finally, lack of a holistic framework for fair, reproducible, and objective comparison across these methods hinders progress of adopting ML-aided architecture design space exploration and impedes creating repeatable artifacts. To mitigate these challenges, we introduce ArchGym, an open-source gym and easy-to-extend framework that connects diverse search algorithms to architecture simulators. To demonstrate utility, we evaluate ArchGym across multiple vanilla and domain-specific search algorithms in designing custom memory controller, deep neural network accelerators, and custom SoC for AR/VR workloads, encompassing over 21K experiments. Results suggest that with unlimited samples, ML algorithms are equally favorable to meet user-defined target specification if hyperparameters are tuned; no solution is necessarily better than another (e.g., reinforcement learning vs. Bayesian methods). We coin the term hyperparameter lottery to describe the chance for a search algorithm to find an optimal design provided meticulously selected hyperparameters. The ease of data collection and aggregation in ArchGym facilitates research in ML-aided architecture design space exploration. As a case study, we show this advantage by developing a proxy cost model with an RMSE of 0.61% that offers a 2,000-fold reduction in simulation time. Code and data for ArchGym is available at https://bit.ly/ArchGym.

The Good, the Bad, and the Missing: Neural Code Generation for Machine Learning Tasks

Machine learning (ML) has been increasingly used in a variety of domains, while solving ML programming tasks poses unique challenges because of the fundamentally different nature and construction from general programming tasks, especially for developers who do not have ML backgrounds. Automatic code generation that produces a code snippet from a natural language description can be a promising technique to accelerate ML programming tasks. In recent years, although many deep learning-based neural code generation models have been proposed with high accuracy, the fact that most of them are mainly evaluated on general programming tasks calls into question their effectiveness and usefulness in ML programming tasks. In this paper, we set out to investigate the effectiveness of existing neural code generation models on ML programming tasks. For our analysis, we select six state-of-the-art neural code generation models, and evaluate their performance on four widely used ML libraries, with newly-created 83K pairs of natural-language described ML programming tasks. Our empirical study reveals some good, bad, and missing aspects of neural code generation models on ML tasks, with a few major ones listed below. (Good) Neural code generation models perform significantly better on ML tasks than on non-ML tasks. (Bad) Most of the generated code is semantically incorrect. (Bad) Code generation models cannot significantly improve developers' completion time. (Good) The generated code can help developers write more correct code by providing developers with clues for using correct APIs. (Missing) The observation from our user study reveals the missing aspects of code generation for ML tasks, e.g., decomposing code generation for divide-and-conquer into two tasks: API sequence identification and API usage generation.

Machine Learning for UAV Propeller Fault Detection based on a Hybrid Data Generation Model

This paper describes the development of an on-board data-driven system that can monitor and localize the fault in a quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and at the same time, evaluate the degree of damage of the fault under real scenarios. To achieve offline training data generation, a hybrid approach is proposed for the development of a virtual data-generative model using a combination of data-driven models as well as well-established dynamic models that describe the kinematics of the UAV. To effectively represent the drop in performance of a faulty propeller, a variation of the deep neural network, a LSTM network is proposed. With the RPM of the propeller as input and based on the fault condition of the propeller, the proposed propeller model estimates the resultant torque and thrust. Then, flight datasets of the UAV under various fault scenarios are generated via simulation using the developed data-generative model. Lastly, a fault classifier using a CNN model is proposed to identify as well as evaluate the degree of damage to the damaged propeller. The scope of this paper focuses on the identification of faulty propellers and classification of the fault level for quadrotor UAVs using RPM as well as flight data. Doing so allows for early minor fault detection to prevent serious faults from occurring if the fault is left unrepaired. To further validate the workability of this approach outside of simulation, a real-flight test is conducted indoors. The real flight data is collected and a simulation to real sim-real test is conducted. Due to the imperfections in the build of our experimental UAV, a slight calibration approach to our simulation model is further proposed and the experimental results obtained show that our trained model can identify the location of propeller fault as well as the degree/type of damage. Currently, the diagnosis accuracy on the testing set is over 80%.

A Machine Learning-based Framework for Predictive Maintenance of Semiconductor Laser for Optical Communication

Semiconductor lasers, one of the key components for optical communication systems, have been rapidly evolving to meet the requirements of next generation optical networks with respect to high speed, low power consumption, small form factor etc. However, these demands have brought severe challenges to the semiconductor laser reliability. Therefore, a great deal of attention has been devoted to improving it and thereby ensuring reliable transmission. In this paper, a predictive maintenance framework using machine learning techniques is proposed for real-time heath monitoring and prognosis of semiconductor laser and thus enhancing its reliability. The proposed approach is composed of three stages: i) real-time performance degradation prediction, ii) degradation detection, and iii) remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. First of all, an attention based gated recurrent unit (GRU) model is adopted for real-time prediction of performance degradation. Then, a convolutional autoencoder is used to detect the degradation or abnormal behavior of a laser, given the predicted degradation performance values. Once an abnormal state is detected, a RUL prediction model based on attention-based deep learning is utilized. Afterwards, the estimated RUL is input for decision making and maintenance planning. The proposed framework is validated using experimental data derived from accelerated aging tests conducted for semiconductor tunable lasers. The proposed approach achieves a very good degradation performance prediction capability with a small root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.01, a good anomaly detection accuracy of 94.24% and a better RUL estimation capability compared to the existing ML-based laser RUL prediction models.

A Machine Learning Approach for Identifying Anatomical Biomarkers of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder that primarily affects the aging population by impairing cognitive and motor functions. Early detection of AD through accessible methodologies like magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is vital for developing effective interventions to halt or slow the disease's progression. This study aims to perform a comprehensive analysis of machine learning techniques for selecting MRI-based biomarkers and classifying individuals into healthy controls (HC) and unstable controls (uHC) who later show mild cognitive impairment within five years. The research utilizes MRI data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroinformatics Initiative (ADNI) and the Open Access Series of Imaging Studies 3 (OASIS-3), focusing on both HC and uHC participants. The study addresses the challenges of imbalanced data by testing classification methods on balanced and unbalanced datasets, and harmonizes data using polynomial regression to mitigate nuisance variables like age, gender, and intracranial volume. Results indicate that Gaussian Naive Bayes and RusBoost classifiers shows an optimal performance, achieving accuracies of up to 76.46% and 72.48% respectively on the ADNI dataset. For the OASIS-3 dataset, Kernel Naive Bayes and RusBoost yield accuracies ranging from 64.66% to 75.71%, improving further in age-matched datasets. Brain regions like the entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, lateral ventricle, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex are identified as significantly impacted during early cognitive decline. Despite limitations such as small sample sizes, the study's harmonization approach enhances the robustness of biomarker selection, suggesting the potential of this semi-automatic machine learning pipeline for early AD detection using MRI.

Detecting Machine-Generated Texts by Multi-Population Aware Optimization for Maximum Mean Discrepancy

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have exhibited remarkable performance in generating human-like texts. However, machine-generated texts (MGTs) may carry critical risks, such as plagiarism issues, misleading information, or hallucination issues. Therefore, it is very urgent and important to detect MGTs in many situations. Unfortunately, it is challenging to distinguish MGTs and human-written texts because the distributional discrepancy between them is often very subtle due to the remarkable performance of LLMs. In this paper, we seek to exploit maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to address this issue in the sense that MMD can well identify distributional discrepancies. However, directly training a detector with MMD using diverse MGTs will incur a significantly increased variance of MMD since MGTs may contain multiple text populations due to various LLMs. This will severely impair MMD's ability to measure the difference between two samples. To tackle this, we propose a novel multi-population aware optimization method for MMD called MMD-MP, which can avoid variance increases and thus improve the stability to measure the distributional discrepancy. Relying on MMD-MP, we develop two methods for paragraph-based and sentence-based detection, respectively. Extensive experiments on various LLMs, \eg, GPT2 and ChatGPT, show superior detection performance of our MMD-MP. The source code is available at https://github.com/ZSHsh98/MMD-MP.

Machine Learning for Shipwreck Segmentation from Side Scan Sonar Imagery: Dataset and Benchmark

Open-source benchmark datasets have been a critical component for advancing machine learning for robot perception in terrestrial applications. Benchmark datasets enable the widespread development of state-of-the-art machine learning methods, which require large datasets for training, validation, and thorough comparison to competing approaches. Underwater environments impose several operational challenges that hinder efforts to collect large benchmark datasets for marine robot perception. Furthermore, a low abundance of targets of interest relative to the size of the search space leads to increased time and cost required to collect useful datasets for a specific task. As a result, there is limited availability of labeled benchmark datasets for underwater applications. We present the AI4Shipwrecks dataset, which consists of 24 distinct shipwreck sites totaling 286 high-resolution labeled side scan sonar images to advance the state-of-the-art in autonomous sonar image understanding. We leverage the unique abundance of targets in Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary in Lake Huron, MI, to collect and compile a sonar imagery benchmark dataset through surveys with an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). We consulted with expert marine archaeologists for the labeling of robotically gathered data. We then leverage this dataset to perform benchmark experiments for comparison of state-of-the-art supervised segmentation methods, and we present insights on opportunities and open challenges for the field. The dataset and benchmarking tools will be released as an open-source benchmark dataset to spur innovation in machine learning for Great Lakes and ocean exploration. The dataset and accompanying software are available at https://umfieldrobotics.github.io/ai4shipwrecks/.

ClimateSet: A Large-Scale Climate Model Dataset for Machine Learning

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

Balancing Computational Efficiency and Forecast Error in Machine Learning-based Time-Series Forecasting: Insights from Live Experiments on Meteorological Nowcasting

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

Machine Learning Force Fields with Data Cost Aware Training

Machine learning force fields (MLFF) have been proposed to accelerate molecular dynamics (MD) simulation, which finds widespread applications in chemistry and biomedical research. Even for the most data-efficient MLFFs, reaching chemical accuracy can require hundreds of frames of force and energy labels generated by expensive quantum mechanical algorithms, which may scale as O(n^3) to O(n^7), with n proportional to the number of basis functions. To address this issue, we propose a multi-stage computational framework -- ASTEROID, which lowers the data cost of MLFFs by leveraging a combination of cheap inaccurate data and expensive accurate data. The motivation behind ASTEROID is that inaccurate data, though incurring large bias, can help capture the sophisticated structures of the underlying force field. Therefore, we first train a MLFF model on a large amount of inaccurate training data, employing a bias-aware loss function to prevent the model from overfitting tahe potential bias of this data. We then fine-tune the obtained model using a small amount of accurate training data, which preserves the knowledge learned from the inaccurate training data while significantly improving the model's accuracy. Moreover, we propose a variant of ASTEROID based on score matching for the setting where the inaccurate training data are unlabeled. Extensive experiments on MD datasets and downstream tasks validate the efficacy of ASTEROID. Our code and data are available at https://github.com/abukharin3/asteroid.

Evaluating Machine Learning Models with NERO: Non-Equivariance Revealed on Orbits

Proper evaluations are crucial for better understanding, troubleshooting, interpreting model behaviors and further improving model performance. While using scalar-based error metrics provides a fast way to overview model performance, they are often too abstract to display certain weak spots and lack information regarding important model properties, such as robustness. This not only hinders machine learning models from being more interpretable and gaining trust, but also can be misleading to both model developers and users. Additionally, conventional evaluation procedures often leave researchers unclear about where and how model fails, which complicates model comparisons and further developments. To address these issues, we propose a novel evaluation workflow, named Non-Equivariance Revealed on Orbits (NERO) Evaluation. The goal of NERO evaluation is to turn focus from traditional scalar-based metrics onto evaluating and visualizing models equivariance, closely capturing model robustness, as well as to allow researchers quickly investigating interesting or unexpected model behaviors. NERO evaluation is consist of a task-agnostic interactive interface and a set of visualizations, called NERO plots, which reveals the equivariance property of the model. Case studies on how NERO evaluation can be applied to multiple research areas, including 2D digit recognition, object detection, particle image velocimetry (PIV), and 3D point cloud classification, demonstrate that NERO evaluation can quickly illustrate different model equivariance, and effectively explain model behaviors through interactive visualizations of the model outputs. In addition, we propose consensus, an alternative to ground truths, to be used in NERO evaluation so that model equivariance can still be evaluated with new, unlabeled datasets.

Machine Translation by Projecting Text into the Same Phonetic-Orthographic Space Using a Common Encoding

The use of subword embedding has proved to be a major innovation in Neural Machine Translation (NMT). It helps NMT to learn better context vectors for Low Resource Languages (LRLs) so as to predict the target words by better modelling the morphologies of the two languages and also the morphosyntax transfer. Even so, their performance for translation in Indian language to Indian language scenario is still not as good as for resource-rich languages. One reason for this is the relative morphological richness of Indian languages, while another is that most of them fall into the extremely low resource or zero-shot categories. Since most major Indian languages use Indic or Brahmi origin scripts, the text written in them is highly phonetic in nature and phonetically similar in terms of abstract letters and their arrangements. We use these characteristics of Indian languages and their scripts to propose an approach based on common multilingual Latin-based encodings (WX notation) that take advantage of language similarity while addressing the morphological complexity issue in NMT. These multilingual Latin-based encodings in NMT, together with Byte Pair Embedding (BPE) allow us to better exploit their phonetic and orthographic as well as lexical similarities to improve the translation quality by projecting different but similar languages on the same orthographic-phonetic character space. We verify the proposed approach by demonstrating experiments on similar language pairs (Gujarati-Hindi, Marathi-Hindi, Nepali-Hindi, Maithili-Hindi, Punjabi-Hindi, and Urdu-Hindi) under low resource conditions. The proposed approach shows an improvement in a majority of cases, in one case as much as ~10 BLEU points compared to baseline techniques for similar language pairs. We also get up to ~1 BLEU points improvement on distant and zero-shot language pairs.

TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations

Machine Learning (ML) models are increasingly used to make critical decisions in real-world applications, yet they have become more complex, making them harder to understand. To this end, researchers have proposed several techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use these explainability techniques because they often do not know which one to choose and how to interpret the results of the explanations. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing TalkToModel: an interactive dialogue system for explaining machine learning models through conversations. Specifically, TalkToModel comprises of three key components: 1) a natural language interface for engaging in conversations, making ML model explainability highly accessible, 2) a dialogue engine that adapts to any tabular model and dataset, interprets natural language, maps it to appropriate explanations, and generates text responses, and 3) an execution component that constructs the explanations. We carried out extensive quantitative and human subject evaluations of TalkToModel. Overall, we found the conversational system understands user inputs on novel datasets and models with high accuracy, demonstrating the system's capacity to generalize to new situations. In real-world evaluations with humans, 73% of healthcare workers (e.g., doctors and nurses) agreed they would use TalkToModel over baseline point-and-click systems for explainability in a disease prediction task, and 85% of ML professionals agreed TalkToModel was easier to use for computing explanations. Our findings demonstrate that TalkToModel is more effective for model explainability than existing systems, introducing a new category of explainability tools for practitioners. Code & demo released here: https://github.com/dylan-slack/TalkToModel.

Machine Learning Workflow to Explain Black-box Models for Early Alzheimer's Disease Classification Evaluated for Multiple Datasets

Purpose: Hard-to-interpret Black-box Machine Learning (ML) were often used for early Alzheimer's Disease (AD) detection. Methods: To interpret eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) black-box models a workflow based on Shapley values was developed. All models were trained on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and evaluated for an independent ADNI test set, as well as the external Australian Imaging and Lifestyle flagship study of Ageing (AIBL), and Open Access Series of Imaging Studies (OASIS) datasets. Shapley values were compared to intuitively interpretable Decision Trees (DTs), and Logistic Regression (LR), as well as natural and permutation feature importances. To avoid the reduction of the explanation validity caused by correlated features, forward selection and aspect consolidation were implemented. Results: Some black-box models outperformed DTs and LR. The forward-selected features correspond to brain areas previously associated with AD. Shapley values identified biologically plausible associations with moderate to strong correlations with feature importances. The most important RF features to predict AD conversion were the volume of the amygdalae, and a cognitive test score. Good cognitive test performances and large brain volumes decreased the AD risk. The models trained using cognitive test scores significantly outperformed brain volumetric models (p<0.05). Cognitive Normal (CN) vs. AD models were successfully transferred to external datasets. Conclusion: In comparison to previous work, improved performances for ADNI and AIBL were achieved for CN vs. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) classification using brain volumes. The Shapley values and the feature importances showed moderate to strong correlations.

An Integrated Optimization and Machine Learning Models to Predict the Admission Status of Emergency Patients

This work proposes a framework for optimizing machine learning algorithms. The practicality of the framework is illustrated using an important case study from the healthcare domain, which is predicting the admission status of emergency department (ED) patients (e.g., admitted vs. discharged) using patient data at the time of triage. The proposed framework can mitigate the crowding problem by proactively planning the patient boarding process. A large retrospective dataset of patient records is obtained from the electronic health record database of all ED visits over three years from three major locations of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US. Three machine learning algorithms are proposed: T-XGB, T-ADAB, and T-MLP. T-XGB integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Tabu Search (TS), T-ADAB integrates Adaboost and TS, and T-MLP integrates multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and TS. The proposed algorithms are compared with the traditional algorithms: XGB, ADAB, and MLP, in which their parameters are tunned using grid search. The three proposed algorithms and the original ones are trained and tested using nine data groups that are obtained from different feature selection methods. In other words, 54 models are developed. Performance was evaluated using five measures: Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy. The results show that the newly proposed algorithms resulted in high AUC and outperformed the traditional algorithms. The T-ADAB performs the best among the newly developed algorithms. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy of the best model are 95.4%, 99.3%, 91.4%, 95.2%, 97.2%, respectively.

An Experience Report on Machine Learning Reproducibility: Guidance for Practitioners and TensorFlow Model Garden Contributors

Machine learning techniques are becoming a fundamental tool for scientific and engineering progress. These techniques are applied in contexts as diverse as astronomy and spam filtering. However, correctly applying these techniques requires careful engineering. Much attention has been paid to the technical potential; relatively little attention has been paid to the software engineering process required to bring research-based machine learning techniques into practical utility. Technology companies have supported the engineering community through machine learning frameworks such as TensorFLow and PyTorch, but the details of how to engineer complex machine learning models in these frameworks have remained hidden. To promote best practices within the engineering community, academic institutions and Google have partnered to launch a Special Interest Group on Machine Learning Models (SIGMODELS) whose goal is to develop exemplary implementations of prominent machine learning models in community locations such as the TensorFlow Model Garden (TFMG). The purpose of this report is to define a process for reproducing a state-of-the-art machine learning model at a level of quality suitable for inclusion in the TFMG. We define the engineering process and elaborate on each step, from paper analysis to model release. We report on our experiences implementing the YOLO model family with a team of 26 student researchers, share the tools we developed, and describe the lessons we learned along the way.

Retrospective Reader for Machine Reading Comprehension

Machine reading comprehension (MRC) is an AI challenge that requires machine to determine the correct answers to questions based on a given passage. MRC systems must not only answer question when necessary but also distinguish when no answer is available according to the given passage and then tactfully abstain from answering. When unanswerable questions are involved in the MRC task, an essential verification module called verifier is especially required in addition to the encoder, though the latest practice on MRC modeling still most benefits from adopting well pre-trained language models as the encoder block by only focusing on the "reading". This paper devotes itself to exploring better verifier design for the MRC task with unanswerable questions. Inspired by how humans solve reading comprehension questions, we proposed a retrospective reader (Retro-Reader) that integrates two stages of reading and verification strategies: 1) sketchy reading that briefly investigates the overall interactions of passage and question, and yield an initial judgment; 2) intensive reading that verifies the answer and gives the final prediction. The proposed reader is evaluated on two benchmark MRC challenge datasets SQuAD2.0 and NewsQA, achieving new state-of-the-art results. Significance tests show that our model is significantly better than the strong ELECTRA and ALBERT baselines. A series of analysis is also conducted to interpret the effectiveness of the proposed reader.

Selective Machine Learning of the Average Treatment Effect with an Invalid Instrumental Variable

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

SocialML: machine learning for social media video creators

In the recent years, social media have become one of the main places where creative content is being published and consumed by billions of users. Contrary to traditional media, social media allow the publishers to receive almost instantaneous feedback regarding their creative work at an unprecedented scale. This is a perfect use case for machine learning methods that can use these massive amounts of data to provide content creators with inspirational ideas and constructive criticism of their work. In this work, we present a comprehensive overview of machine learning-empowered tools we developed for video creators at Group Nine Media - one of the major social media companies that creates short-form videos with over three billion views per month. Our main contribution is a set of tools that allow the creators to leverage massive amounts of data to improve their creation process, evaluate their videos before the publication and improve content quality. These applications include an interactive conversational bot that allows access to material archives, a Web-based application for automatic selection of optimal video thumbnail, as well as deep learning methods for optimizing headline and predicting video popularity. Our A/B tests show that deployment of our tools leads to significant increase of average video view count by 12.9%. Our additional contribution is a set of considerations collected during the deployment of those tools that can hel

Google's Neural Machine Translation System: Bridging the Gap between Human and Machine Translation

Neural Machine Translation (NMT) is an end-to-end learning approach for automated translation, with the potential to overcome many of the weaknesses of conventional phrase-based translation systems. Unfortunately, NMT systems are known to be computationally expensive both in training and in translation inference. Also, most NMT systems have difficulty with rare words. These issues have hindered NMT's use in practical deployments and services, where both accuracy and speed are essential. In this work, we present GNMT, Google's Neural Machine Translation system, which attempts to address many of these issues. Our model consists of a deep LSTM network with 8 encoder and 8 decoder layers using attention and residual connections. To improve parallelism and therefore decrease training time, our attention mechanism connects the bottom layer of the decoder to the top layer of the encoder. To accelerate the final translation speed, we employ low-precision arithmetic during inference computations. To improve handling of rare words, we divide words into a limited set of common sub-word units ("wordpieces") for both input and output. This method provides a good balance between the flexibility of "character"-delimited models and the efficiency of "word"-delimited models, naturally handles translation of rare words, and ultimately improves the overall accuracy of the system. Our beam search technique employs a length-normalization procedure and uses a coverage penalty, which encourages generation of an output sentence that is most likely to cover all the words in the source sentence. On the WMT'14 English-to-French and English-to-German benchmarks, GNMT achieves competitive results to state-of-the-art. Using a human side-by-side evaluation on a set of isolated simple sentences, it reduces translation errors by an average of 60% compared to Google's phrase-based production system.