Daily Papers

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

We present SpiralMLP, a novel architecture that introduces a Spiral FC layer as a replacement for the conventional Token Mixing approach. Differing from several existing MLP-based models that primarily emphasize axes, our Spiral FC layer is designed as a deformable convolution layer with spiral-like offsets. We further adapt Spiral FC into two variants: Self-Spiral FC and Cross-Spiral FC, which enable both local and global feature integration seamlessly, eliminating the need for additional processing steps. To thoroughly investigate the effectiveness of the spiral-like offsets and validate our design, we conduct ablation studies and explore optimal configurations. In empirical tests, SpiralMLP reaches state-of-the-art performance, similar to Transformers, CNNs, and other MLPs, benchmarking on ImageNet-1k, COCO and ADE20K. SpiralMLP still maintains linear computational complexity O(HW) and is compatible with varying input image resolutions. Our study reveals that targeting the full receptive field is not essential for achieving high performance, instead, adopting a refined approach offers better results.