Daily Papers

While there has been a growing research interest in developing out-of-distribution (OOD) detection methods, there has been comparably little discussion around how these methods should be evaluated. Given their relevance for safe(r) AI, it is important to examine whether the basis for comparing OOD detection methods is consistent with practical needs. In this work, we take a closer look at the go-to metrics for evaluating OOD detection, and question the approach of exclusively reducing OOD detection to a binary classification task with little consideration for the detection threshold. We illustrate the limitations of current metrics (AUROC & its friends) and propose a new metric - Area Under the Threshold Curve (AUTC), which explicitly penalizes poor separation between ID and OOD samples. Scripts and data are available at https://github.com/glhr/beyond-auroc

In machine learning (ML), a widespread adage is that the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) is a superior metric for model comparison to the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) for binary classification tasks with class imbalance. This paper challenges this notion through novel mathematical analysis, illustrating that AUROC and AUPRC can be concisely related in probabilistic terms. We demonstrate that AUPRC, contrary to popular belief, is not superior in cases of class imbalance and might even be a harmful metric, given its inclination to unduly favor model improvements in subpopulations with more frequent positive labels. This bias can inadvertently heighten algorithmic disparities. Prompted by these insights, a thorough review of existing ML literature was conducted, utilizing large language models to analyze over 1.5 million papers from arXiv. Our investigation focused on the prevalence and substantiation of the purported AUPRC superiority. The results expose a significant deficit in empirical backing and a trend of misattributions that have fuelled the widespread acceptance of AUPRC's supposed advantages. Our findings represent a dual contribution: a significant technical advancement in understanding metric behaviors and a stark warning about unchecked assumptions in the ML community. All experiments are accessible at https://github.com/mmcdermott/AUC_is_all_you_need.

Automated slice classification is clinically relevant since it can be incorporated into medical image segmentation workflows as a preprocessing step that would flag slices with a higher probability of containing tumors, thereby directing physicians attention to the important slices. In this work, we train a ResNet-18 network to classify axial slices of lymphoma PET/CT images (collected from two institutions) depending on whether the slice intercepted a tumor (positive slice) in the 3D image or if the slice did not (negative slice). Various instances of the network were trained on 2D axial datasets created in different ways: (i) slice-level split and (ii) patient-level split; inputs of different types were used: (i) only PET slices and (ii) concatenated PET and CT slices; and different training strategies were employed: (i) center-aware (CAW) and (ii) center-agnostic (CAG). Model performances were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC), and various binary classification metrics. We observe and describe a performance overestimation in the case of slice-level split as compared to the patient-level split training. The model trained using patient-level split data with the network input containing only PET slices in the CAG training regime was the best performing/generalizing model on a majority of metrics. Our models were additionally more closely compared using the sensitivity metric on the positive slices from their respective test sets.

To investigate whether the pleurae, airways and vessels surrounding a nodule on non-contrast computed tomography (CT) can discriminate benign and malignant pulmonary nodules. The LIDC-IDRI dataset, one of the largest publicly available CT database, was exploited for study. A total of 1556 nodules from 694 patients were involved in statistical analysis, where nodules with average scorings <3 and >3 were respectively denoted as benign and malignant. Besides, 339 nodules from 113 patients with diagnosis ground-truth were independently evaluated. Computer algorithms were developed to segment pulmonary structures and quantify the distances to pleural surface, airways and vessels, as well as the counting number and normalized volume of airways and vessels near a nodule. Odds ratio (OR) and Chi-square (\chi^2) testing were performed to demonstrate the correlation between features of surrounding structures and nodule malignancy. A non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted in logistic regression to evaluate discrimination ability of each structure. For benign and malignant groups, the average distances from nodules to pleural surface, airways and vessels are respectively (6.56, 5.19), (37.08, 26.43) and (1.42, 1.07) mm. The correlation between nodules and the counting number of airways and vessels that contact or project towards nodules are respectively (OR=22.96, \chi^2=105.04) and (OR=7.06, \chi^2=290.11). The correlation between nodules and the volume of airways and vessels are (OR=9.19, \chi^2=159.02) and (OR=2.29, \chi^2=55.89). The areas-under-curves (AUCs) for pleurae, airways and vessels are respectively 0.5202, 0.6943 and 0.6529. Our results show that malignant nodules are often surrounded by more pulmonary structures compared with benign ones, suggesting that features of these structures could be viewed as lung cancer biomarkers.

This work proposes a framework for optimizing machine learning algorithms. The practicality of the framework is illustrated using an important case study from the healthcare domain, which is predicting the admission status of emergency department (ED) patients (e.g., admitted vs. discharged) using patient data at the time of triage. The proposed framework can mitigate the crowding problem by proactively planning the patient boarding process. A large retrospective dataset of patient records is obtained from the electronic health record database of all ED visits over three years from three major locations of a healthcare provider in the Midwest of the US. Three machine learning algorithms are proposed: T-XGB, T-ADAB, and T-MLP. T-XGB integrates extreme gradient boosting (XGB) and Tabu Search (TS), T-ADAB integrates Adaboost and TS, and T-MLP integrates multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and TS. The proposed algorithms are compared with the traditional algorithms: XGB, ADAB, and MLP, in which their parameters are tunned using grid search. The three proposed algorithms and the original ones are trained and tested using nine data groups that are obtained from different feature selection methods. In other words, 54 models are developed. Performance was evaluated using five measures: Area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy. The results show that the newly proposed algorithms resulted in high AUC and outperformed the traditional algorithms. The T-ADAB performs the best among the newly developed algorithms. The AUC, sensitivity, specificity, F1, and accuracy of the best model are 95.4%, 99.3%, 91.4%, 95.2%, 97.2%, respectively.

Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.

In this study, we systematically investigate the impact of class imbalance on classification performance of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and compare frequently used methods to address the issue. Class imbalance is a common problem that has been comprehensively studied in classical machine learning, yet very limited systematic research is available in the context of deep learning. In our study, we use three benchmark datasets of increasing complexity, MNIST, CIFAR-10 and ImageNet, to investigate the effects of imbalance on classification and perform an extensive comparison of several methods to address the issue: oversampling, undersampling, two-phase training, and thresholding that compensates for prior class probabilities. Our main evaluation metric is area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC) adjusted to multi-class tasks since overall accuracy metric is associated with notable difficulties in the context of imbalanced data. Based on results from our experiments we conclude that (i) the effect of class imbalance on classification performance is detrimental; (ii) the method of addressing class imbalance that emerged as dominant in almost all analyzed scenarios was oversampling; (iii) oversampling should be applied to the level that completely eliminates the imbalance, whereas the optimal undersampling ratio depends on the extent of imbalance; (iv) as opposed to some classical machine learning models, oversampling does not cause overfitting of CNNs; (v) thresholding should be applied to compensate for prior class probabilities when overall number of properly classified cases is of interest.

Wrist Fracture is the most common type of fracture with a high incidence rate. Conventional radiography (i.e. X-ray imaging) is used for wrist fracture detection routinely, but occasionally fracture delineation poses issues and an additional confirmation by computed tomography (CT) is needed for diagnosis. Recent advances in the field of Deep Learning (DL), a subfield of Artificial Intelligence (AI), have shown that wrist fracture detection can be automated using Convolutional Neural Networks. However, previous studies did not pay close attention to the difficult cases which can only be confirmed via CT imaging. In this study, we have developed and analyzed a state-of-the-art DL-based pipeline for wrist (distal radius) fracture detection -- DeepWrist, and evaluated it against one general population test set, and one challenging test set comprising only cases requiring confirmation by CT. Our results reveal that a typical state-of-the-art approach, such as DeepWrist, while having a near-perfect performance on the general independent test set, has a substantially lower performance on the challenging test set -- average precision of 0.99 (0.99-0.99) vs 0.64 (0.46-0.83), respectively. Similarly, the area under the ROC curve was of 0.99 (0.98-0.99) vs 0.84 (0.72-0.93), respectively. Our findings highlight the importance of a meticulous analysis of DL-based models before clinical use, and unearth the need for more challenging settings for testing medical AI systems.

Deep learning is currently the state-of-the-art for automated detection of referable diabetic retinopathy (DR) from color fundus photographs (CFP). While the general interest is put on improving results through methodological innovations, it is not clear how good these approaches perform compared to standard deep classification models trained with the appropriate settings. In this paper we propose to model a strong baseline for this task based on a simple and standard ResNet-18 architecture. To this end, we built on top of prior art by training the model with a standard preprocessing strategy but using images from several public sources and an empirically calibrated data augmentation setting. To evaluate its performance, we covered multiple clinically relevant perspectives, including image and patient level DR screening, discriminating responses by input quality and DR grade, assessing model uncertainties and analyzing its results in a qualitative manner. With no other methodological innovation than a carefully designed training, our ResNet model achieved an AUC = 0.955 (0.953 - 0.956) on a combined test set of 61007 test images from different public datasets, which is in line or even better than what other more complex deep learning models reported in the literature. Similar AUC values were obtained in 480 images from two separate in-house databases specially prepared for this study, which emphasize its generalization ability. This confirms that standard networks can still be strong baselines for this task if properly trained.

In some medical imaging tasks and other settings where only small parts of the image are informative for the classification task, traditional CNNs can sometimes struggle to generalise. Manually annotated Regions of Interest (ROI) are sometimes used to isolate the most informative parts of the image. However, these are expensive to collect and may vary significantly across annotators. To overcome these issues, we propose a framework that employs saliency maps to obtain soft spatial attention masks that modulate the image features at different scales. We refer to our method as Adversarial Counterfactual Attention (ACAT). ACAT increases the baseline classification accuracy of lesions in brain CT scans from 71.39% to 72.55% and of COVID-19 related findings in lung CT scans from 67.71% to 70.84% and exceeds the performance of competing methods. We investigate the best way to generate the saliency maps employed in our architecture and propose a way to obtain them from adversarially generated counterfactual images. They are able to isolate the area of interest in brain and lung CT scans without using any manual annotations. In the task of localising the lesion location out of 6 possible regions, they obtain a score of 65.05% on brain CT scans, improving the score of 61.29% obtained with the best competing method.

In this work we explore the application of AI to robotic welding. Robotic welding is a widely used technology in many industries, but robots currently do not have the capability to detect welding defects which get introduced due to various reasons in the welding process. We describe how deep-learning methods can be applied to detect weld defects in real-time by recording the welding process with microphones and a camera. Our findings are based on a large database with more than 4000 welding samples we collected which covers different weld types, materials and various defect categories. All deep learning models are trained in an unsupervised fashion because the space of possible defects is large and the defects in our data may contain biases. We demonstrate that a reliable real-time detection of most categories of weld defects is feasible both from audio and video, with improvements achieved by combining both modalities. Specifically, the multi-modal approach achieves an average Area-under-ROC-Curve (AUC) of 0.92 over all eleven defect types in our data. We conclude the paper with an analysis of the results by defect type and a discussion of future work.

We present a deep learning segmentation model that can automatically and robustly segment all major anatomical structures in body CT images. In this retrospective study, 1204 CT examinations (from the years 2012, 2016, and 2020) were used to segment 104 anatomical structures (27 organs, 59 bones, 10 muscles, 8 vessels) relevant for use cases such as organ volumetry, disease characterization, and surgical or radiotherapy planning. The CT images were randomly sampled from routine clinical studies and thus represent a real-world dataset (different ages, pathologies, scanners, body parts, sequences, and sites). The authors trained an nnU-Net segmentation algorithm on this dataset and calculated Dice similarity coefficients (Dice) to evaluate the model's performance. The trained algorithm was applied to a second dataset of 4004 whole-body CT examinations to investigate age dependent volume and attenuation changes. The proposed model showed a high Dice score (0.943) on the test set, which included a wide range of clinical data with major pathologies. The model significantly outperformed another publicly available segmentation model on a separate dataset (Dice score, 0.932 versus 0.871, respectively). The aging study demonstrated significant correlations between age and volume and mean attenuation for a variety of organ groups (e.g., age and aortic volume; age and mean attenuation of the autochthonous dorsal musculature). The developed model enables robust and accurate segmentation of 104 anatomical structures. The annotated dataset (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6802613) and toolkit (https://www.github.com/wasserth/TotalSegmentator) are publicly available.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.